So the cycle turns again and here we are at both an end and a beginning. The year 2015 will be remembered for much evil but also much good, as most years are, but should be judged according to what was actually resolved, beyond words and so in deed.
Humanity continues to dance on the existential abyss of a Malthusian moment. How much longer can our cleverness and technology counteract the logic of Malthus? We are going to find out, not next year but soon.
Make no mistake. Climate change is an existential threat that has wiped out species in the past and will continue to do so. Humanity has developed the ability to control small parts of nature, but can still reap the destructive whirlwind of hubris. We recently saw some small signs of hope in Paris, but we must be realistic. A 2C world may not be possible under the time constraints our leaders (if you want to call them that) have left us with, since the problem was first identified back in the early 1960's.
Since the "Industrial Revolution" began to accelerate around 1850, the CO2e concentration in the atmosphere also accelerated. A large part of this extra CO2e concentration remains in the atmosphere for a very long time. This fact seriously constrains the time in which it is physically possible to change it. The time when it was easiest to fix the problem was in the sixties. It was probably still possible by 2000; possible with difficulty by 2010; and now very difficult indeed. Yet we are still in the talk phase. Action cannot come soon enough.
It has been noted https://theconversation.com/weve-got-a-climate-goal-of-1-5-degrees-so-how-do-we-get-there-52413 that, in order to achieve a 2C world, let alone a 1.5C world, CO2e must be physically removed from the atmosphere. The technology required to do this does not yet exist. Our situation at present is akin to a bet on a race. If our technology wins our species continues; if climate change wins our species is annihilated. The actions of the nations of the world on this issue imply a naive trust in the all-conquering supremacy of our technology. This is hubris and can lead to our destruction. There is a chance that it will not and we have implicitly wagered our existence on this chance. The pigs are taking flight as we speak.
Another gamble of note which has come to light this year is this associated concept of a 2C world, by which is meant a mean temperature of two degrees Celsius above preindustrial mean atmospheric temperature. The nature of the gamble is that these are mean temperatures. The arithmetic mean is a measure of central tendency in a large population of measurements. As such, in a world with a mean atmospheric temperature of 2C above preindustrial conditions, there will be an equal number of measurements within the 2C range above this state as below. Since each measurement corresponds to a geographical location, it becomes a lottery as to whether the place where you live is in the former or the latter category. Maybe you will get lucky.
Another thread in the tapestry was the continuing Middle East Saga; Huntington's 'Clash of Civilisations.' There was a time when I paid little attention to this issue, forming no opinions and ignoring the suffering because it was in the too hard basket. See what happens when you ignore things?
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